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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – Sept 2, 2014

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Real Estate Secrets: Understanding the 'Option Period' and What This Term Means for You as a BuyerLast week’s economic news included several reports related to housing. The Case-Shiller and FHFA reports for June showed a further slowing in home price growth. New home sales for July fell short of the expected reading, but pending home sales exceeded expectations. The details:

Case-Shiller, FHFA: June Home Price Growth Slows

The Case-Shiller 10 and 20-City Home Price Index for June moved from May’s year-over-year reading of 9.40 percent growth to 8.10 percent in June. Home prices grew by 1.00 percent on a month-to-month basis in June as compared to May’s reading of 1.20 percent.

Demand shrank due to increasing inventories of available homes and stricter mortgage standards. For the first time since 2008, each of the 20 cities tracked showed slowing growth in home prices. Home prices are about 17 percent lower than their pre-recession peak in 2006. Case-Shiller also reported that the national median home price rose by 2.90 percent year-over-year to $269,800.

Analysts said that slower gains in home prices coupled with increasing confidence among home builders signals a return to more normal housing market conditions.

FHFA reported that home prices for purchase transactions grew by 0.20 percent less than May’s year-over-year reading of 5.40 percent. FHFA reports on properties connected with mortgages owned or backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

New Home Sales Slip in July, Pending Home Sales Gain

The Department of Commerce reported that New Home Sales missed expectations for July with a reading of 412,000 new homes sold on seasonally adjusted annual basis. June’s revised reading was 422,000 new homes sold, and analysts expected new home sales at a rate of 430,000 in July against June’s original sales pace of 406,000. Three out of four regions posted slower growth rates for new home sales, with the South posted a gain in new home sales. New home sales were 12.30 percent higher than one year ago.

Analysts said that improving labor market conditions and the slower rate of home price growth are positive trends for housing markets as more home buyers can afford to buy homes. Mortgage rates are approximately one-half percent lower than last year, which also increases affordability.

Pending home sales exceeded expectations for July to an 11 month high, which may ease concerns over July’s dip in new home sales. The National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Index rose to 105.9 in July as compared to June’s index reading of 102.5. Homes under contract increased from a negative reading of -1.30 percent in June to July’s reading of +3.30 percent. Pending home sales are considered a strong indicator of future home sales.

Mortgage Rates Mixed. Consumer Confidence Jumps

Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates were little changed. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged at 4.12 percent. 15-year mortgages had an average rate of 3.25 percent which was an increase of two basis points over the previous week. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage moved from 2.95 percent to 2.97 percent. Discount points were unchanged at 0.50, 0.60 and 0.50 percent respectively.

Two gauges of U.S. consumer confidence indicated stronger levels of consumer confidence in the economy. The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.4 in August from July’s reading of 91.9 and exceeded a lower expectation of 88.5. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 82.5 against July’s reading of 79.2 and the expected reading of 80.1. Increasing consumer confidence suggests that as more consumers become comfortable with current economic conditions, they may be more confident about buying homes.

What’s Coming Up

Next week’s economic reports include construction spending and the Fed’s Beige Book Report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will also release Non-farm Payrolls and the National Unemployment Rate for August. No activity is scheduled for Monday due to the Labor Day holiday.

Case-Shiller, FHFA Report Slowing Growth in Home Prices

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Case-Shiller FHFA Report Slowing Growth in Home PricesThe Case-Shiller 10 and 20-City Home Price Indices for June reported year-over-year gains of 8.10 percent while the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index covers all nine census regions and reported a year-over-year gain of 6.20 percent.

Readings for all three indices worsened as compared to May readings, and all cities tracked showed slower growth in home prices. The National Home Price Index, which is now published monthly, rose by 0.90 percent from May’s reading, and both the 10 and 20-City Index posted month-to-month gains of one percent.

Five cities including Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, Phoenix and San Diego posted larger gains in June than for May.

Regional Home Price Growth: NYC Leads Cities in June

According to the Case-Shiller 20-City Index, New York City led home price growth in June with a reading of +1.60 percent. Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas posted gains of 1.40 percent with Las Vegas posting its largest home price gain since last summer.

Year-over-year, Las Vegas posted the highest growth rate at 15.20 percent. San Francisco’s home price gains slowed to a year-over-year rate of 12.90 percent. Phoenix posted its slowest home price growth since March of 2012 with its June reading of 6.90 percent.

Home Prices Rise, But Modestly

While home prices in all cities tracked by Case-Shiller rose for the third consecutive month, analysts said that the Federal Reserve may increase its target federal funds rate as soon as the first quarter of 2015. This would lead to higher mortgage rates, which could further flatten home price growth.

Home affordability became an issue for many would-be buyers after the rapid rate of home price growth seen in 2013. Lower demand for homes could also impact the rate of home price appreciation as inventories of available homes rise. With these factors and no one knowing exactly when the Fed will act to raise rates, it’s unlikely that home prices will rapidly escalate in the coming months.

FHFA Reports Slower Home Price Growth in June

FHFA, the agency that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that June home prices slowed from May’s reading of 5.40 percent year-over-year to 5.20 percent year-over-year in June. FHFA reports on properties connected with mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHFA shared some positive trends for seasonally adjusted purchase-only home prices in its June report:

  • June’s home prices rose in 40 states.

  • Home prices rose for the seventh consecutive month

  • Home prices rose for 23 of the last 24 months with the November 2013 as the exception.

  • Home prices rose in the second quarter of 2014 in 74 of 100 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) tracked by the federal government.

  • Home prices in the Pacific and Mountain census districts continued to slow in the second quarter. After rapid growth in home prices in 2013, this appears to indicate and expected adjustment rather than an unexpected crash in home prices for these regions.

While slower growth in home prices is of concern to homeowners, more affordable prices will likely encourage more would-be buyers to become actual buyers.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – Aug 4, 2014

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Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week Aug 4 2014Last week’s economic news included a number of housing related reports. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, pending home sales dropped by 1.10 percent in June. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports for May noted that home prices are growing at a slower rate of 9.30 percent year-over-year than April’s year-over-year growth rate of 10.80 percent. Construction spending was also lower in June.

The Fed’s FOMC statement indicated that asset purchases connected to quantitative easing will cease in October, but that the current target federal funds rate is expected to stay in place “a considerable period” after asset purchases conclude. FOMC noted its concern over housing markets, which was based on slower home price growth and market activity.

Pending Home Sales, Home Price Growth Slower

Pending home sales dropped by 1.10 percent nationwide in June. This was the first decrease in four months. Pending home sales rose by 1.10 percent in the Midwest and 0.20 percent in the West, but dropped by 2.90 percent in the Northeast and 2.40 percent in the South. Pending sales are measured by signed purchase contracts and provide an indicator of future completed sales and mortgage loan activity.

The 20-city Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May fell by 1.50 percent to a year-over-year reading of 9.30 percent from April’s 10.80 percent. No cities in the 20-city index reported declining home prices.

Construction spending fell by 1.80 percent in June against projections of an 0.30 percent increase in spending and May’s reading of an 0.80 percent increase. Reasons cited for lower construction spending included builder focus on high-demand areas. Builders have also indicated concerns about rising mortgage rates and tight loan requirements that impact numbers of home buyers that can qualify for home loans.

Mortgage Rates Little Changed, Fed Continues Wind-Down of Asset Purchases

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, rates were little changed last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 4.12 percent as compared to 4.13 percent the prior week. Discount points were unchanged at an average of 0.60 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell by three basis points to 3.23 percent with discount points higher by 10 basis points at 0.70 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage fell by one basis point to 2.38 percent with average discount points of 0.40 percent unchanged.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve issued its customary post-meeting statement on Wednesday. The FOMC plans to continue reducing asset purchase under the current quantitative easing program until the purchases cease in October. Although some analysts were concerned that the Fed may consider raising its target federal funds rate based on lower than expected unemployment figures, the FOMC said it doesn’t plan to raise the target federal funds “for a considerable time” after the QE purchases cease, but no specific timeline was given.

Labor Sector News

The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Labor Statistics posted a national unemployment rate of 6.20 percent for July, which was higher than expectations of a 6.00 percent national unemployment rate and June’s reading of 6.10 percent. To put these readings in perspective, the Fed had established an unemployment rate of 6.50 percent as a benchmark for winding down its asset purchases and potentially raising the target federal funds rate.

Non-farm payrolls reported 209,000 jobs added in July against projections of 235,000 jobs added and June’s reading of 298,000 jobs added. While July’s reading was lower, analysts said that job growth suggests ongoing recovery for labor markets. Labor markets have been cited in recent months as reasons for slower demand for homes and home builder skepticism.

Next week’s scheduled economic news contains no housing-related reports other than Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates report.

S P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: May Home Prices Rise

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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: May Home Prices RiseMay home prices rose in all 20 cities tracked by the S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index. This was the second consecutive month in which all cities posted gains.

On average, national home prices rose by 1.10 percent in May as compared to April’s reading. Year-over-year, home prices rose, but at a slower rate of 9.39 percent in May as compared to 10.80 percent year-over-year for April.

Nevada, Florida and California Cities Post Highest Gains 

Cities posting the highest year-over-year price gains in May included Las Vegas, Nevada at 16.90 percent, San Francisco, California at 15.40 percent, Miami, Florida at 13.20 percent. San Diego and Los Angeles, California reported home price growth rates at 12.40 and 12.29 percent respectively.

According to the 20-City Index, home prices are 18 percent below their peak reached in mid-2006, but are 27 percent higher as compared to March 2012 lows.

Pending Home Sales Decline in June

More evidence of sluggish home sales was reported for June. The National Association of REALTORS® reported that pending home sales dropped by 1.10 percent in June. This was a surprise as compared to May’s month-to-month gain of 6.00 percent for pending sales.

Several factors were cited as contributing to slower home sales; higher home prices, stagnant wage growth, higher mortgage rates and stringent loan requirements were seen as obstacles for home buyers. Pending home sales are an indicator of future closings and mortgage activity. Approximately 80 percent of purchase contracts signed sales completed within 60 days.

FHFA House Price Index: Home Price Growth Slips in May

FHFA, the agency that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that home prices grew by 0.40 percent in May to a seasonally-adjusted year-over-year rate of 5.50 percent as compared to April’s year-over-year reading of 5.90 percent. FHFA’s House Price Index is based on sales of homes connected with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages. 

On a positive note, the reading for the Consumer Confidence Index jumped from 85.20 in June to 90.90 in July. Expanding consumer confidence suggests that more families may decide to transition from renting to owning their homes, and that homeowners may feel confident enough to move up to larger homes.

 

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in April

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Case Shiller Home Price Growth Slows in AprilThe S&P Case-Shiller Index for April shows that while home prices continue to grow, they are doing so at a slower pace as compared to April 2013. The Case-Shiller 20 city index reports that home prices expanded at a year-over-year annual rate of 10.80 percent as compared to 12.40 percent in April 2013.

Month-to-month data showed that home prices rose for the second consecutive month. The seasonally- adjusted month-to-month growth rate for the 20 city home price index was 0.20 percent against March’s month-to-month home price growth rate of 1.20 percent.

Slower Home Price Growth: A Silver Lining?

According to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index 19 of 20 cities posted slower growth rates for home prices in April. Analysts say that this may not be all bad news as rapidly rising home prices, a shortage of available homes and stringent mortgage credit requirements have caused would-be buyers to be sidelined. Inventories of available homes are increasing which should help more buyers enter the market.

David M. Blitzer, chair of the S & P Dow Jones Indices Committee said that last year, some sun belt cities posted annual home price growth rates near 30 percent, but this year, the maximum annual home price growth rates are lower than 20 percent for all cities on a seasonally adjusted annual basis.

Month-to-month price growth was described as seasonally strong. Five cities posted month-to-month price gains of two percent or more.

Seven of the 20 cities included in the 20-city index posted slower rates of home price growth in April than for March: Cleveland, Ohio, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles California, Miami, Florida, Phoenix, Arizona and San Diego, California were included in this group. Boston, Massachusetts posted a 2.70 percent gain in home prices between March and April; this was the city’s largest month-to-month gain since the inception of the 20-City Index.

Lower mortgage rates, more homes on the market, and a recent statement by the Federal Reserve that it did not expect to raise its target federal funds rate until mid-2015 are seen as factors that are helping to stabilize housing markets.

FHFA Reports Home Price Gain Rate Unchanged in April

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported that home prices connected with mortgages owned or backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 0.70 percent, which was the same pace in month-to-month home price growth as for March. Year-over-year, home prices rose by 5.90 percent.

On a seasonally-adjusted month-to-month basis, home prices ranged from -1.3 percent in the New England division to +0.60 percent in the East South Central division. Year-over-year, home prices in the nine census divisions increased at rates between 1.70 percent for the Mid-Atlantic division to 10.70 percent for the Pacific division.

The peak home-buying season during spring and summer months and labor market performance will likely be strong influences on home price growth in the coming months.

Warmer Weather Brings In The Buyers, Is There Inventory?

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Warmer Weather Brings In The Buyers, Is There Inventory?After three consecutive months of decline, the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index remained nearly unchanged in February. Year-over-year home prices rose by 12.90 percent in February as compared to 13.20 percent in January.

20 Percent Below Their 2006 Pre-recession Peak

Analysts note that in spite of recent slowdowns in home prices, the year-over-year rates of home price growth remain close to peak price growth attained in 2006. National home prices remain approximately 20 percent below their 2006 pre-recession peak.

13 cities posted lower rates of price gains in February. The Case-Shiller 10 and 20 city indices showed year-over-year price gains of 13.10 and 12.90 percent respectively. Only five cities posted year-over-year gains in price appreciation.

Las Vegas, Nevada continues to lead home price growth but its year-over-year rate of home price growth slowed from January’s reading of 24.9 percent to February’s reading of 23.10 percent. Washington, D.C. posted its eighth consecutive month of home price gains with a year-over-year reading of 9.10 percent, its highest rate of price increases since May 2006.

Dallas, Texas posted a year-over-year rate of 10.10 percent and a month-to-month increase of 0.20 percent, which continues the city’s record home price growth.

Home Price Gains Expected To Slow In Coming Months

Analysts said that more homes are expected to come on the market and also noted that the rapid increase in home prices for some areas likely sidelined some buyers. As inventories of homes increase, home prices are expected to rise at more modest rates. Job markets continue to experience ups and downs and incomes are relatively flat.

These factors can cause would-be homeowners to take a “wait-and-see” stance. Price increases in other sectors can also impact home prices, as buyers adjust their home purchase plans to what they can afford to spend.

Pending Home Sales Rise In March

The NAR reported that its pending home sales index rose by 3.40 percent in March as compared to a decrease of -0.80 percent for February. The March reading showed the first increase in pending home sales in nine months, and was the highest reading since November.

Warmer weather allowed more buyers shop for homes, but remains 7.90 percent lower than in March 2013. Higher home prices and low inventories of available homes were cited as reasons for the lower reading.

Pending home sales by region showed mixed results, and suggested the impact of severe winter weather on potential home buyers.

Northeast: +1.40 percent

Midwest:    -0.80 percent

South:       +5.60 percent

West:        +5.70 percent

Based on a slow start during the first quarter of 2014, the NAR forecasts 2014 sales of existing homes at 4.9 million as compared to 5.1 million existing homes sold in 2013.

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